About The WNBA King

What you get

The WNBA King projects every WNBA player prop — points, rebounds, assists, threes, steals, blocks and combos — and shows that projection against the posted line and the de-vigged market price, hit rates and the matchup context behind it. Around it: interactive shot charts, possession-level lineups and on/off, advanced player profiles, matchups, standings, scores, box scores and a published closing-line-value board.

How to read it

• Lean — the side our projection sits on. A description of the projection, not a recommendation.
• Fair % — the market's own probability with the vig removed. This is the market's number, not ours.
• Price improvement vs median — how much cheaper the same bet is at the best book than at the median one, in implied-probability points (1/median − 1/best). Two real posted prices compared to each other.
• ⚠ — marks a prop we've flagged as unreliable (single-book or anomalous line) — skip it.
• Why we no longer publish an edge, an EV or a grade — we graded 4,201 WNBA props against the closing market. Our model neither beat the close nor cleared the break-even a play needs: the rows we liked most came in at 44–46% against a 57.74% hurdle. Publishing an edge number would be asserting something the data does not support, so the site shows projections, lines and prices instead.
• Line shopping — click any board row to compare every sportsbook and grab the best number.

In the playoffs

Playoff games are projected differently from regular-season games. The switch is automatic: it turns on from the game's own type on the schedule, Game 1 included. Three things change:

• Playoff sample — once a player has 2 playoff games this postseason, her projection is built from those games, with her regular season as the prior.
• Pace — playoff games are projected about 3% slower (fewer possessions).
• Shorter bench — rotations shrink in the playoffs. From 2006 to 2025 a team's top five played 5 points more of its minutes than in the same teams' last 10 regular-season games. So a player projected for 10–22 minutes gets 13% fewer projected minutes (and so fewer projected stats) in her first 2 playoff games, and 6% fewer after that. Starters and stars are unchanged. We tested this season by season on the 2011–2025 playoffs, fitting it only on earlier seasons. It cut the projection error on points, rebounds, assists, threes and PRA in every season.

Game scores and win probabilities have no playoff adjustment. WNBA playoff scoring does not drop compared with the same teams' regular-season games. Every playoff adjustment we tested for totals, home edge and margins failed to beat the regular-season model.

The track record

Every pick is logged before tip and graded after the game — win or lose. What we publish from that ledger is closing-line value: how often our number beat the closing market, with the calibration curve next to it. We do not publish a record or an ROI, because the model has not earned the right to — see “Why we no longer publish an edge, an EV or a grade” above. Read the CLV board small-sample-aware while it builds. Beating the close over the long run is the only honest test, and we hold ourselves to it in public.

← Back to the Board