Forward CLV — did we beat the closing line? — is the only honest test of edge. Every modeled pick is logged at its entry line before tip, the closing line is captured, and results are graded straight from the box score, win or lose. Nothing here is hand-picked after the fact.
Forward track — picks locked before tip
Model results — all graded picks, including same-day backfill from launch day
Calibration — when the model says X%, does it hit X%?
| Model P(win) | Predicted | Actual | | n |
ROI by grade — forward picks only
Tonight's tracked best bets
| Player | Opp | Market | Pick | Line | Price | Edge | Grade |
Recent results
| Date | Player | Market | Pick | Line | Actual | Result | Entry | CLV |
Entertainment only, 21+. CLV = the no-vig probability of our side at the close minus at entry (positive = the market moved toward us). Backfill = a pick whose game had already finished when the ledger first saw it — counted for record & calibration, never for forward CLV. See
methodology.