Closing Line Value
Every WNBA pick this model flagged is logged at the price available when it was made, and the closing price on the same side is captured before the event starts. This page reports how often the entry price beat the close, how well the model's probabilities match reality, over how many picks, and across what span.
This is not a profit claim. Beating the closing line says the
market moved toward the pick after it was made. It does not say the pick won, and it does not say
the model made money. No units, no ROI and no bankroll figures appear anywhere on this page, by
design: those get published only if the record is genuinely profitable, and beating the close is
honest to publish either way.
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Calibration
When the model says 60%, does it happen 60% of the time? Each point is a probability decile: predicted on the x-axis, what actually happened on the y-axis. The dashed diagonal is perfect. Point size is the number of picks in the bucket.